College Footballspreads · beta
The play, every game: the Vegas line, the side we're on, our point edge, and the chance we cover — from opponent-adjusted team strength plus a committee of independent systems. Odds-free model; the line is for the edge + the record.
Plays this season: 53–44 ATS (55%) · 97 graded vs the number we called — a coin flip until ~100. 42 of these were labelled after the fact, not frozen before kickoff. Every rated game, leans included: 144–118.plays = a 3+ pt committee edge (our number plus two independent point-scale systems vs the line) on a line of 24.5 or less; week 1 was labelled after the fact (frozen verdicts start week 2); leans are shown, never counted.
2026 · week 6 · 55 games ·
Spread Play of the Week
Pittsburgh over North Carolina
✓ takePittsburgh−3.58.3-pt committee edge
target the pass· #36 O vs #34 D
65%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 81%
12:00 PM ET
South Florida
over UTSA · 7:30 PM ET
65%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 56%
✓ takeSouth Florida+77.4-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #49 O vs #99 D
Liberty
over Sam Houston · 7:00 PM ET
64%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 88%
✓ takeLiberty−13.55.8-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #63 O vs #112 D
Arkansas State
over South Alabama · 7:30 PM ET
56%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 70%
leanArkansas State−1.52.5-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #93 O vs #136 D
Western Kentucky
over Missouri State · 7:00 PM ET
45%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 59%
leanWestern Kentucky−2.5-1.9-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #107 O vs #128 D
Iowa
over Washington · 9:00 PM ET
63%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 51%
✓ takeIowa+3.55.4-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #51 O vs #18 D
Utah State
over Washington State · 9:00 PM ET
59%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 56%
✓ takeWashington State+5.53.9-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #121 O vs #79 D
San José State
over Wyoming · 9:00 PM ET
52%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 50%
leanWyoming+60.8-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #126 O vs #105 D
BYU
over Iowa State · 10:15 PM ET
51%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 83%
leanBYU−10.50.2-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #24 O vs #39 D
Louisville
over Florida State · 7:00 PM ET
50%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 66%
leanLouisville−3.50.1-pt committee edgetarget the run· #19 O vs #74 D
Ole Miss
over Vanderbilt · 3:30 PM ET
65%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 53%
✓ takeVanderbilt+107.5-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #12 O vs #45 D
James Madison
over Georgia Southern · 7:30 PM ET
65%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 83%
✓ takeJames Madison−7.56.8-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #48 O vs #104 D
Oklahoma State
over UCF · 12:00 PM ET
65%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 60%
✓ takeUCF+9.58.6-pt committee edgebalanced attack· #33 O vs #23 D
Oregon State
over San Diego State · 6:00 PM ET
65%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 76%
✓ takeSan Diego State+14.56.3-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #67 O vs #86 D
Arizona State
over Hawai'i · 9:30 PM ET
65%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 86%
✓ takeHawai'i+20.58.3-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #73 O vs #108 D
Western Michigan
over Kent State · 3:30 PM ET
62%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 86%
✓ takeWestern Michigan−13.54.9-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #113 O vs #122 D
Arizona
over West Virginia · 12:00 PM ET
61%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 66%
✓ takeArizona−34.6-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #32 O vs #92 D
Nevada
over UTEP · 7:00 PM ET
61%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 82%
✓ takeNevada−9.54.5-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #103 O vs #135 D
Virginia
over Syracuse · 7:30 PM ET
61%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 86%
✓ takeVirginia−9.54.4-pt committee edgetarget the run· #29 O vs #51 D
Air Force
over Northern Illinois · 7:30 PM ET
60%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 86%
✓ takeAir Force−7.54.0-pt committee edgebalanced attack· #74 O vs #129 D
Louisiana
over Louisiana Tech · 7:30 PM ET
60%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 60%
✓ takeLouisiana+34.0-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #83 O vs #101 D
Sacramento State
over Bowling Green · 12:00 PM ET
59%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 52%
✓ takeSacramento State+7.53.7-pt committee edgebalanced attack· #133 O vs #126 D
Ohio
over Central Michigan · 3:30 PM ET
59%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 74%
✓ takeOhio−33.7-pt committee edgebalanced attack· #105 O vs #100 D
East Carolina
over Rice · 4:00 PM ET
58%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 82%
✓ takeEast Carolina−103.1-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #92 O vs #116 D
Minnesota
over Purdue · 8:00 PM ET
57%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 74%
✓ takeMinnesota−2.53.1-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #62 O vs #120 D
Texas
vs Oklahoma · 3:30 PM ET
57%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 72%
✓ takeTexas−7.53.0-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #16 O vs #5 D
Toledo
over Buffalo · 3:30 PM ET
57%
to cover · model, unproven
wins outright 89%
✓ takeBuffalo+213.0-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #67 O vs #107 D
Ohio State
over Maryland · 4:15 PM ET
57%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 95%
leanMaryland+34.53.0-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #1 O vs #54 D
Memphis
over UAB · 7:00 PM ET
57%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 88%
leanMemphis−142.9-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #33 O vs #115 D
North Texas
over Charlotte · 3:30 PM ET
57%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 93%
leanCharlotte+28.52.8-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #47 O vs #137 D
Georgia
over Alabama · 7:30 PM ET
56%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 61%
leanGeorgia+1.52.6-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #1 O vs #13 D
Boise State
over Fresno State · 10:30 PM ET
56%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 63%
leanFresno State+6.52.5-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #29 O vs #50 D
Northwestern
over Ball State · 12:30 PM ET
56%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 98%
leanBall State+36.52.3-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #59 O vs #133 D
Temple
over UConn · 3:45 PM ET
55%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 50%
leanUConn+3.52.2-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #79 O vs #112 D
Utah
over Kansas · 10:15 PM ET
55%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 92%
leanUtah−15.52.0-pt committee edgebalanced attack· #13 O vs #67 D
App State
over Old Dominion · 1:00 PM ET
54%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 64%
leanOld Dominion+9.51.8-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #80 O vs #73 D
Army
over Tulane · 12:00 PM ET
54%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 71%
leanArmy−31.6-pt committee edgebalanced attack· #75 O vs #80 D
Massachusetts
over Miami (OH) · 2:00 PM ET
54%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 52%
leanMassachusetts+2.51.7-pt committee edgebalanced attack· #86 O vs #82 D
NC State
over Wake Forest · 12:00 PM ET
53%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 55%
leanNC State+3.51.3-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #50 O vs #84 D
Kansas State
over Houston · 3:30 PM ET
53%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 61%
leanKansas State−2.51.2-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #21 O vs #53 D
Indiana
over Nebraska · 12:00 PM ET
53%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 68%
leanIndiana−7.51.2-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #5 O vs #22 D
Penn State
over USC · 7:30 PM ET
53%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 54%
leanPenn State−1.51.0-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #28 O vs #49 D
North Dakota State
over UNLV · 7:00 PM ET
51%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 68%
leanNorth Dakota State−30.5-pt committee edgebalanced attack· #54 O vs #89 D
Eastern Michigan
over Akron · 3:30 PM ET
51%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 56%
leanAkron+70.4-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #127 O vs #130 D
Notre Dame
over Stanford · 3:30 PM ET
51%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 99%
leanNotre Dame−38.50.4-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #4 O vs #98 D
Oregon
over UCLA · 3:30 PM ET
50%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 73%
leanUCLA+11.50.2-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #5 O vs #40 D
Tennessee
over Arkansas · 4:15 PM ET
50%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 83%
leanTennessee−13.50.1-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #14 O vs #90 D
Marshall
over Coastal Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
50%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 53%
leanCoastal Carolina+30.0-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #96 O vs #134 D
Illinois
over Michigan State · 3:30 PM ET
50%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 64%
leanIllinois−2.50.0-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #24 O vs #58 D
LSU
over Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
49%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 74%
leanLSU−8.5-0.3-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #22 O vs #47 D
Missouri
over Texas A&M · 12:00 PM ET
49%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 67%
leanMissouri−3.5-0.4-pt committee edgetarget the run· #40 O vs #44 D
Duke
over Georgia Tech · 3:30 PM ET
49%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 68%
leanDuke−7-0.4-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #29 O vs #76 D
Virginia Tech
over California · 3:30 PM ET
47%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 79%
leanVirginia Tech−10-1.2-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #27 O vs #69 D
Navy
over Tulsa · 3:30 PM ET
44%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 55%
leanTulsa+2.5-2.3-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #101 O vs #95 D
Florida
over South Carolina · 12:45 PM ET
40%
to cover · lean, not a play
wins outright 79%
leanFlorida−12.5-4.1-pt committee edgetarget the pass· #9 O vs #51 D
New spread board, grading every pick in the open — not yet at the certified bar the MLB boards have. The model never sees a line; the number and record are shown so you can act on the edge honestly.