NFL weak-spot boards · 2026 Week 5 · TD % is an unverified estimate: the model was updated Sep 29 and has no graded record yet; earlier model, 2026 weeks 1-3: shown 41%, scored 39%, n=159 (not a check of today's numbers)
updated 235 min ago · stats through 2026 wk4, 15 games
Plays vs the line127–13748%from 264 graded against the line we froze at send
- Every pick
- leans included, 301–331
- Excluding injured
- players who left the game, 123–133
- What counts as a play
- plays = our projection 10% (or the market's yard floor) off the consensus line
- Leans
- shown on the board, never counted in the record
- No market line
- 14 board rows had no two-way line when frozen — not counted
How the model did last seasonheld out, not a betting record
2025 replayed week by week, the model only ever seeing earlier weeks. This season's graded record is below.
Anytime TD · top 10 a week
55.6%
scored, against 18.5% for the average player — 3.01× the base rate
5,880 player-games
Rushing yards · accuracy
±9.1
yards off, on average — -1.1% better than a player's own season average
4,624 player-games
Receiving yards · top 10 a week
76.4
yards actually gained by the ten we ranked highest, ±16 per projection
5,234 player-games
TD Pick of the Weekfrozen Mon, Oct 5 — it does not move
RJ Harvey
DEN vs LAC · anytime touchdown
46%
to score
The market had him at 38% when we locked it — a +8 point disagreement. Graded in public either way.
6●GB vs CHI
Passing Yards257pass yds▲ O 233.5
11●CHI vs GB
RZ 2.8vs #18/30 D
Rushing Yards59rush yds▲ O 51.5
Anytime TD35%TDmkt 43% -8
First TD Scorer7%1st TDmkt 12% -5
26●GB vs CHI
vs #20/30 D
Receiving Yards49rec yds▼ U 56
Receptions3.3catches▼ U 4.5
32●CHI vs GB
vs #22/30 D
Receiving Yards46rec yds▲ O 39
45●GB vs CHI
Receptions3.2catches▼ U 4.5
32●GB vs CHI
vs #20/30 D
Receptions3.6catches▼ U 4.5
Receiving Yards58rec yds▽ u 60.5
Anytime TD36%TDmkt 34% +2
First TD Scorer9%1st TDmkt 8% +1
38●CHI vs GB
vs #22/30 D
Receiving Yards44rec yds▽ u 49.5
8●CHI vs GB
RZ 3.0vs #18/30 D
Rushing Yards67rush yds△ o 61.5
Anytime TD35%TDmkt 40% -5
First TD Scorer9%1st TDmkt 14% -5
30●NYJ vs CLE
Rushing Yards27rush yds▼ U 71.5
24●NYJ vs CLE
RZ 2.0vs #29/30 D
Receiving Yards51rec yds▼ U 69.5
Receptions4.5catches▼ U 6.5
Anytime TD35%TDmkt 40% -5
First TD Scorer9%1st TDmkt 11% -3
23●CLE vs NYJ
RZ 3.1vs #29/30 D
Rushing Yards47rush yds▼ U 59.5
Anytime TD34%TDmkt 40% -5
First TD Scorer9%1st TDmkt 13% -4
39●CLE vs NYJ
vs #19/30 D
Receiving Yards44rec yds▲ O 35.5
Receptions3.8catches▽ u 4.5
First TD Scorer8%1st TDmkt 9% -1
31●CLE vs NYJ
Receiving Yards46rec yds▲ O 38.5
Receptions4.3catches▽ u 4.5
21●CLE vs NYJ
Receiving Yards54rec yds▲ O 47.5
16●NYJ vs CLE
Passing Yards202pass yds▽ u 206.5
34●NYJ vs CLE
RZ 3.0
Anytime TD35%TDmkt 20% +15
36●IND vs PIT
⚠️ Questionable
Receiving Yards44rec yds▲ O 27.5
Receptions4.0catches▲ O 3
Anytime TD35%TDmkt 19% +15
First TD Scorer7%1st TDmkt 4% +2
5●IND vs PIT
RZ 4.7
Rushing Yards75rush yds▼ U 88.5
Anytime TD48%TDmkt 63% -15
First TD Scorer14%1st TDmkt 22% -8
29●IND vs PIT
Receiving Yards48rec yds▼ U 58.5
27●IND vs PIT
RZ 2.0vs #27/30 D
Receptions4.0catches▼ U 5.5
Receiving Yards44rec yds▽ u 49.5
9●PIT vs IND
Passing Yards247pass yds△ o 224.5
28●PIT vs IND
vs #18/30 D
Receiving Yards48rec yds▽ u 51.5
Receptions3.6catches△ o 3.5
First TD Scorer7%1st TDmkt 10% -3
Anytime TD35%TDmkt 34% +1
16●PIT vs IND
RZ 2.4vs #19/30 D
Rushing Yards56rush yds
59●BAL vs ATL
⚠️ Questionablevs #28/30 D
Receiving Yards34rec yds▲ O 17.5
7●ATL vs BAL
vs #21/30 D
Receiving Yards67rec yds▼ U 82.5
Receptions4.8catches▼ U 6.5
56●BAL vs ATL
Receiving Yards38rec yds▲ O 29.5
Receptions3.5catches△ o 3.5
4●BAL vs ATL
vs #28/30 D
Receiving Yards74rec yds△ o 68.5
Receptions4.8catches▽ u 5.5
Anytime TD36%TDmkt 32% +3
First TD Scorer9%1st TDmkt 8% +1
2●BAL vs ATL
RZ 3.7
Rushing Yards89rush yds△ o 84.5
Anytime TD47%TDmkt 56% -9
First TD Scorer14%1st TDmkt 17% -4
1●ATL vs BAL
RZ 3.7
Rushing Yards90rush yds△ o 88.5
Anytime TD47%TDmkt 68% -21
First TD Scorer14%1st TDmkt 25% -11
14●BAL vs ATL
RZ 2.0vs #29/30 D
Passing Yards217pass yds
12●LAC vs DEN
dome
Passing Yards231pass yds▲ O 200
12●LAC vs DEN
RZ 3.4dome
Rushing Yards58rush yds▲ O 38
Anytime TD35%TDmkt 36% -1
First TD Scorer9%1st TDmkt 10% -1
37●DEN vs LAC
dome
Receiving Yards44rec yds▼ U 51.5
Receptions3.3catches▼ U 4.5
First TD Scorer7%1st TDmkt 10% -3
Anytime TD30%TDmkt 32% -1
43●DEN vs LAC
dome
Receiving Yards43rec yds△ o 38
Receptions3.2catches▽ u 3.5
19●DEN vs LAC
RZ 2.9dome
Rushing Yards54rush yds△ o 51.5
39●DEN vs LAC
RZ 3.8dome
Receptions3.3catches▽ u 4
Anytime TD45%TDmkt 32% +13
First TD Scorer14%1st TDmkt 10% +4
47●LAC vs DEN
dome
Receiving Yards41rec yds
52●LAC vs DEN
dome
Receiving Yards40rec yds
25●JAX vs PHI
RZ 2.5London, England
Rushing Yards46rush yds▼ U 67
First TD Scorer7%1st TDmkt 17% -10
46●JAX vs PHI
London, England
Receiving Yards42rec yds▲ O 24.5
40●JAX vs PHI
London, England
Receiving Yards44rec yds▼ U 60.5
Receptions3.4catches▼ U 4.5
Anytime TD35%TDmkt 36% -1
15●JAX vs PHI
London, England
Passing Yards212pass yds▽ u 227.5
34●JAX vs PHI
London, England
Receiving Yards44rec yds△ o 42.5
Receptions3.2catches▽ u 3.5
32●PHI vs JAX
RZ 3.7London, England
Anytime TD35%TD
First TD Scorer8%1st TD
Rushing Yards71rush yds
40●PHI vs JAX
London, England
Anytime TD35%TD
First TD Scorer7%1st TD
Receiving Yards56rec yds
Receptions4.6catches
12●ARI vs DET
RZ 2.1vs #25/30 D
Receiving Yards63rec yds▼ U 80.5
Receptions7.1catches▽ u 7.5
Anytime TD47%TDmkt 44% +3
First TD Scorer9%1st TDmkt 8% +1
4●DET vs ARI
RZ 4.1vs #25/30 D
Rushing Yards76rush yds▼ U 90.5
Anytime TD60%TDmkt 79% -20
First TD Scorer14%1st TDmkt 25% -11
18●ARI vs DET
⚠️ QuestionableRZ 3.2
Rushing Yards55rush yds▲ O 47
8●ARI vs DET
vs #25/30 D
Passing Yards248pass yds▽ u 270.5
1●DET vs ARI
vs #21/30 D
Passing Yards284pass yds△ o 280.5
3●DET vs ARI
RZ 2.2
Receiving Yards75rec yds▽ u 78.5
Receptions6.9catches▽ u 7.5
Anytime TD49%TDmkt 57% -8
First TD Scorer14%1st TDmkt 13% 0
25●DET vs ARI
vs #21/30 D
Receiving Yards51rec yds▽ u 52.5
Receptions4.1catches▽ u 4.5
23●DET vs ARI
Receiving Yards51rec yds▽ u 51.5
17●DAL vs TB
RZ 3.3
Rushing Yards56rush yds▼ U 73.5
Anytime TD47%TDmkt 64% -17
First TD Scorer14%1st TDmkt 23% -9
42●TB vs DAL
vs #30/30 D
Receiving Yards43rec yds▲ O 28.5
Receptions4.0catches△ o 3.5
30●TB vs DAL
vs #30/30 D
Receiving Yards47rec yds▲ O 34.5
5●DAL vs TB
vs #28/30 D
Passing Yards257pass yds▽ u 264.5
13●TB vs DAL
RZ 2.9vs #26/30 D
Rushing Yards58rush yds△ o 52.5
16●DAL vs TB
Receiving Yards59rec yds▽ u 61.5
Receptions4.7catches△ o 4.5
Anytime TD35%TDmkt 43% -8
First TD Scorer7%1st TDmkt 11% -4
2●DAL vs TB
Receiving Yards81rec yds△ o 80.5
Anytime TD47%TDmkt 49% -2
First TD Scorer14%1st TDmkt 14% 0
Receptions6.5catches▽ u 6.5
5●NO vs MIN
dome
Receiving Yards73rec yds▼ U 81.5
Receptions6.0catches▽ u 6.5
First TD Scorer10%1st TDmkt 9% +1
9●MIN vs NO
RZ 3.5vs #21/30 Ddome
Rushing Yards65rush yds▼ U 72.5
Anytime TD36%TDmkt 47% -12
33●NO vs MIN
dome
Receptions3.5catches▼ U 4.5
3●NO vs MIN
RZ 2.1dome
Passing Yards260pass yds△ o 239.5
15●NO vs MIN
RZ 3.5dome
First TD Scorer11%1st TDmkt 13% -1
Anytime TD37%TDmkt 37% -1
Rushing Yards41rush yds
21●MIN vs NO
⚠️ QuestionableRZ 2.0vs #19/30 D+1
First TD Scorer10%1st TDmkt 11% -1
Anytime TD37%TDmkt 36% 0
Receiving Yards65rec yds
Receptions4.9catches
41●MIN vs NO
⚠️ Questionablevs #19/30 Ddome
Receiving Yards43rec yds
44●MIN vs NO
dome
Receiving Yards42rec yds
6●LA vs BUF
dome
Receiving Yards71rec yds▼ U 92.5
Receptions6.3catches▽ u 7
Anytime TD47%TDmkt 56% -9
First TD Scorer11%1st TDmkt 13% -3
53●BUF vs LA
vs #18/30 Ddome
Receiving Yards40rec yds▼ U 49.5
2●LA vs BUF
dome
Passing Yards284pass yds△ o 279
7●BUF vs LA
RZ 2.5vs #20/30 Ddome
Passing Yards249pass yds△ o 244
3●BUF vs LA
RZ 3.3dome
Rushing Yards79rush yds△ o 75.5
15●LA vs BUF
RZ 2.2dome
Receiving Yards61rec yds▽ u 62.5
Receptions4.7catches△ o 4.5
Anytime TD47%TDmkt 51% -4
First TD Scorer9%1st TDmkt 11% -2
2●LA vs BUF
RZ 4.8vs #28/30 Ddome
Anytime TD59%TDmkt 64% -5
First TD Scorer14%1st TDmkt 17% -3
Rushing Yards69rush yds▽ u 69.5
45●BUF vs LA
vs #27/30 Ddome
Receiving Yards42rec yds
Receptions3.9catches
28●SEA vs SF
RZ 2.5vs #20/30 D
Rushing Yards40rush yds▼ U 60.5
10●SF vs SEA
RZ 4.5
Rushing Yards60rush yds▲ O 53.5
Receiving Yards40rec yds△ o 35.5
Anytime TD49%TDmkt 56% -7
First TD Scorer14%1st TDmkt 17% -2
Receptions4.5catches▽ u 4.5
10●SEA vs SF
vs #19/30 D
Passing Yards241pass yds△ o 227.5
1●SEA vs SF
Receiving Yards86rec yds▽ u 93.5
Receptions6.7catches△ o 6.5
Anytime TD47%TDmkt 49% -2
First TD Scorer14%1st TDmkt 13% 0
22●SF vs SEA
Receiving Yards53rec yds▽ u 57.5
Receptions4.2catches▽ u 4.5
Anytime TD35%TDmkt 33% +1
27●SF vs SEA
⚠️ Questionable
Receiving Yards49rec yds△ o 48.5
44●SF vs SEA
RZ 2.0
First TD Scorer7%1st TDmkt 7% 0
14●LV vs NE
⚠️ Questionable
Receiving Yards61rec yds▼ U 73.5
Receptions6.2catches▽ u 6.5
Anytime TD37%TDmkt 39% -2
First TD Scorer10%1st TDmkt 10% 0
54●NE vs LV
Receiving Yards40rec yds▼ U 51.5
15●LV vs NE
RZ 3.5
Rushing Yards56rush yds▽ u 59.5
Receptions3.3catches▽ u 3.5
Anytime TD45%TDmkt 55% -10
First TD Scorer14%1st TDmkt 15% -2
49●LV vs NE
vs #24/30 D
Receiving Yards41rec yds▽ u 41.5
Receptions3.2catches▽ u 3.5
13●NE vs LV
vs #23/30 D
Passing Yards228pass yds△ o 227
26●NE vs LV
RZ 3.1
Anytime TD36%TDmkt 51% -15
First TD Scorer10%1st TDmkt 16% -6
22●NE vs LV
RZ 2.6
Rushing Yards49rush yds
55●NE vs LV
Receiving Yards39rec yds
29●MIA vs CIN
RZ 2.2vs #27/30 D
Rushing Yards28rush yds▼ U 45.5
14●CIN vs MIA
RZ 3.5vs #23/30 D
Rushing Yards57rush yds▼ U 67.5
Anytime TD43%TDmkt 57% -14
First TD Scorer14%1st TDmkt 20% -7
4●CIN vs MIA
Passing Yards258pass yds△ o 235.5
17●CIN vs MIA
RZ 2.1
Anytime TD38%TD
First TD Scorer13%1st TD
Receiving Yards61rec yds
Receptions5.9catches
23●CIN vs MIA
⚠️ Questionable
Anytime TD36%TD
First TD Scorer11%1st TD
Receiving Yards65rec yds
Receptions4.3catches
8●MIA vs CIN
Receiving Yards66rec yds
Receptions4.1catches
60●MIA vs CIN
Receiving Yards33rec yds
24●WAS vs NYG
RZ 2.4vs #24/30 D
Rushing Yards46rush yds▼ U 55.5
20●NYG vs WAS
RZ 3.2vs #22/30 D
Rushing Yards50rush yds▼ U 58
Anytime TD35%TDmkt 44% -10
First TD Scorer7%1st TDmkt 14% -7
17●WAS vs NYG
RZ 2.3
Passing Yards191pass yds▽ u 198.5
58●NYG vs WAS
⚠️ Questionablevs #29/30 D
Receiving Yards36rec yds▽ u 40.5
19●NYG vs WAS
vs #26/30 D
Receiving Yards58rec yds△ o 55.5
Receptions5.7catches△ o 5.5
First TD Scorer7%1st TDmkt 8% -2
33●WAS vs NYG
vs #23/30 D
First TD Scorer8%1st TDmkt 10% -2
Anytime TD37%TDmkt 35% +2
Receiving Yards41rec yds
Receptions3.3catches
38●WAS vs NYG
vs #23/30 D
Anytime TD35%TDmkt 37% -2
Receiving Yards45rec yds
Receptions3.4catches
11●HOU vs TEN
Receiving Yards63rec yds▼ U 79.5
Receptions4.2catches▼ U 5.5
Anytime TD36%TDmkt 43% -6
First TD Scorer10%1st TDmkt 15% -6
11●HOU vs TEN
vs #22/30 D
Passing Yards233pass yds▽ u 241
18●TEN vs HOU
Receiving Yards58rec yds△ o 53
Receptions4.3catches▽ u 4.5
48●HOU vs TEN
Receiving Yards41rec yds△ o 37.5
57●TEN vs HOU
Receiving Yards36rec yds△ o 32.5
Receptions3.7catches△ o 3.5
26●HOU vs TEN
RZ 3.5vs #30/30 D
Rushing Yards44rush yds▽ u 47
Anytime TD37%TDmkt 47% -10
First TD Scorer11%1st TDmkt 17% -6
21●TEN vs HOU
RZ 3.1
Rushing Yards49rush yds△ o 49
42●HOU vs TEN
RZ 2.9vs #30/30 D
First TD Scorer7%1st TDmkt 12% -5
Anytime TD33%TDmkt 33% +1
Games Underway + Final
Saved pregame projections, not live predictions. Lines below are historical.
ATL @ NO · Week 4 · Final
Saved pregame projections — not live predictions.
Snapshot: 2026-10-06T00:02:57.014006+00:00
Anytime TD
- Bijan Robinson — 47% · Pregame line 64%
- Chris Olave — 39% · Pregame line 43%
- Alvin Kamara — 35% · Pregame line 39%
- Drake London — 35% · Pregame line 42%
- Juwan Johnson — 30% · Pregame line 31%
First TD Scorer
- Bijan Robinson — 14% · Pregame line 20%
- Chris Olave — 12% · Pregame line 11%
- Alvin Kamara — 9% · Pregame line 11%
- Drake London — 7% · Pregame line 11%
- Juwan Johnson — 5% · Pregame line 8%
Rushing Yards
- Bijan Robinson — 82 rush yds · Pregame line 88.5
- Alvin Kamara — 43 rush yds · Pregame line 36.5
- Brian Robinson — 36 rush yds
- Kendre Miller — 22 rush yds · Pregame line 26.5
- Tyler Shough — 17 rush yds · Pregame line 16.5
Receiving Yards
- Chris Olave — 72 rec yds · Pregame line 85.5
- Drake London — 67 rec yds · Pregame line 80.5
- Juwan Johnson — 39 rec yds · Pregame line 46.5
- Devaughn Vele — 38 rec yds · Pregame line 44.5
- Bijan Robinson — 34 rec yds · Pregame line 37.5
- Kyle Pitts — 34 rec yds · Pregame line 31
Receptions
- Chris Olave — 5.5 catches · Pregame line 6.5
- Drake London — 5.1 catches · Pregame line 6.5
- Juwan Johnson — 3.7 catches · Pregame line 4.5
- Bijan Robinson — 3.4 catches · Pregame line 4.5
- Devaughn Vele — 3.0 catches · Pregame line 3.5
- Alvin Kamara — 2.9 catches · Pregame line 2.5
Passing Yards
- Tyler Shough — 255 pass yds · Pregame line 258.5
- Michael Penix Jr. — 217 pass yds · Pregame line 225
DET @ CAR · Week 4 · Final
Saved pregame projections — not live predictions.
Snapshot: 2026-10-05T00:02:44.410801+00:00
Anytime TD
- Jahmyr Gibbs — 59% · Pregame line 75%
- Amon-Ra St. Brown — 50% · Pregame line 52%
- Chuba Hubbard — 35% · Pregame line 52%
- Tetairoa McMillan — 35% · Pregame line 41%
First TD Scorer
- Jahmyr Gibbs — 14% · Pregame line 24%
- Amon-Ra St. Brown — 14% · Pregame line 14%
- Chuba Hubbard — 7% · Pregame line 14%
- Tetairoa McMillan — 6% · Pregame line 9%
Rushing Yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs — 79 rush yds · Pregame line 96.5
- Chuba Hubbard — 51 rush yds · Pregame line 65.5
- AJ Dillon — 13 rush yds · Pregame line 12.5
Receiving Yards
- Amon-Ra St. Brown — 78 rec yds · Pregame line 77.5
- Tetairoa McMillan — 52 rec yds · Pregame line 72.5
- Jameson Williams — 49 rec yds · Pregame line 50.5
- Sam LaPorta — 45 rec yds · Pregame line 47.5
- Jalen Coker — 41 rec yds · Pregame line 49
Receptions
- Amon-Ra St. Brown — 7.1 catches · Pregame line 6.5
- Tetairoa McMillan — 4.0 catches · Pregame line 5.5
- Sam LaPorta — 3.8 catches · Pregame line 4.5
- Jalen Coker — 3.7 catches · Pregame line 4.5
- Jameson Williams — 3.5 catches · Pregame line 3.5
Passing Yards
- Jared Goff — 270 pass yds · Pregame line 257.5
- Bryce Young — 251 pass yds · Pregame line 243.5
KC @ LV · Week 4 · Final
Saved pregame projections — not live predictions.
Snapshot: 2026-10-04T20:03:42.378452+00:00
Anytime TD
- Kenneth Walker III — 47% · Pregame line 60%
- Ashton Jeanty — 45% · Pregame line 54%
- Rashee Rice — 39% · Pregame line 39%
First TD Scorer
- Kenneth Walker III — 14% · Pregame line 17%
- Ashton Jeanty — 12% · Pregame line 15%
- Rashee Rice — 9% · Pregame line 10%
Rushing Yards
- Kenneth Walker III — 62 rush yds · Pregame line 86.5
- Ashton Jeanty — 58 rush yds · Pregame line 59.5
Receiving Yards
- Brock Bowers — 57 rec yds · Pregame line 70.5
- Rashee Rice — 57 rec yds · Pregame line 57.5
- Travis Kelce — 44 rec yds · Pregame line 47.5
- Tre Tucker — 40 rec yds · Pregame line 38.5
Receptions
- Rashee Rice — 5.9 catches · Pregame line 4.5
- Brock Bowers — 5.5 catches · Pregame line 6.5
- Travis Kelce — 4.0 catches · Pregame line 4.5
Passing Yards
- Patrick Mahomes — 241 pass yds · Pregame line 238.5
LAC @ SEA · Week 4 · Final
Saved pregame projections — not live predictions.
Snapshot: 2026-10-04T20:03:42.378452+00:00
Anytime TD
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 47% · Pregame line 53%
- Omarion Hampton — 35% · Pregame line 40%
- Cooper Kupp — 28% · Pregame line 22%
First TD Scorer
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 14% · Pregame line 17%
- Omarion Hampton — 9% · Pregame line 12%
- Cooper Kupp — 6% · Pregame line 6%
Rushing Yards
- Omarion Hampton — 59 rush yds · Pregame line 45.5
- Emanuel Wilson — 36 rush yds · Pregame line 44.5
Receiving Yards
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 86 rec yds · Pregame line 93.5
- Ladd McConkey — 45 rec yds · Pregame line 47.5
- Quentin Johnston — 44 rec yds · Pregame line 34.5
- Cooper Kupp — 36 rec yds · Pregame line 23.5
Receptions
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 6.5 catches · Pregame line 6.5
- Ladd McConkey — 3.1 catches · Pregame line 3.5
- Quentin Johnston — 2.7 catches · Pregame line 3
Passing Yards
- Sam Darnold — 241 pass yds · Pregame line 233.5
- Justin Herbert — 229 pass yds · Pregame line 199.5
DEN @ SF · Week 4 · Final
Saved pregame projections — not live predictions.
Snapshot: 2026-10-04T20:03:42.378452+00:00
Anytime TD
- Christian McCaffrey — 52% · Pregame line 61%
- RJ Harvey — 44% · Pregame line 28%
- George Kittle — 35% · Pregame line 36%
First TD Scorer
- Christian McCaffrey — 15% · Pregame line 18%
- RJ Harvey — 10% · Pregame line 7%
- George Kittle — 7% · Pregame line 9%
Rushing Yards
- J.K. Dobbins — 58 rush yds · Pregame line 59.5
- Christian McCaffrey — 57 rush yds · Pregame line 65.5
Receiving Yards
- George Kittle — 53 rec yds · Pregame line 62.5
- Mike Evans — 48 rec yds · Pregame line 44.5
- Christian McCaffrey — 44 rec yds · Pregame line 41.5
- Deebo Samuel Sr. — 41 rec yds · Pregame line 34.5
Receptions
- Christian McCaffrey — 4.4 catches · Pregame line 4.5
- Mike Evans — 4.2 catches · Pregame line 3.5
- George Kittle — 4.1 catches · Pregame line 4.5
Passing Yards
- Brock Purdy — 241 pass yds · Pregame line 233.5
- Bo Nix — 224 pass yds · Pregame line 222.5
MIA @ MIN · Week 4 · Final
Saved pregame projections — not live predictions.
Snapshot: 2026-10-04T20:03:42.378452+00:00
Anytime TD
- Aaron Jones — 37% · Pregame line 56%
- Jordan Addison — 32% · Pregame line 43%
- Jauan Jennings — 28% · Pregame line 19%
First TD Scorer
- Aaron Jones — 14% · Pregame line 22%
- Jordan Addison — 10% · Pregame line 15%
- Jauan Jennings — 9% · Pregame line 6%
Rushing Yards
- Aaron Jones — 62 rush yds · Pregame line 65.5
- Kyler Murray — 26 rush yds · Pregame line 21.5
Receiving Yards
- Jordan Addison — 41 rec yds · Pregame line 62.5
- Jauan Jennings — 35 rec yds · Pregame line 27.5
- Malik Washington — 32 rec yds · Pregame line 40.5
- T.J. Hockenson — 31 rec yds · Pregame line 38.5
Receptions
- Malik Washington — 2.8 catches · Pregame line 4.5
- T.J. Hockenson — 2.6 catches · Pregame line 4.5
- Jordan Addison — 2.5 catches · Pregame line 4.5
Passing Yards
- Kyler Murray — 191 pass yds · Pregame line 205.5
TEN @ BAL · Week 4 · Final
Saved pregame projections — not live predictions.
Snapshot: 2026-10-04T16:32:32.322939+00:00
Anytime TD
- Derrick Henry — 47% · Pregame line 68%
- Zay Flowers — 37% · Pregame line 40%
- Mark Andrews — 35% · Pregame line 36%
First TD Scorer
- Derrick Henry — 14% · Pregame line 26%
- Zay Flowers — 11% · Pregame line 13%
- Mark Andrews — 6% · Pregame line 11%
Rushing Yards
- Derrick Henry — 92 rush yds · Pregame line 97.5
- Tony Pollard — 49 rush yds · Pregame line 48.5
Receiving Yards
- Zay Flowers — 63 rec yds · Pregame line 71.5
- Carnell Tate — 43 rec yds · Pregame line 43.5
- Wan'Dale Robinson — 42 rec yds · Pregame line 37.5
- Mark Andrews — 34 rec yds · Pregame line 37.5
Receptions
- Zay Flowers — 4.7 catches · Pregame line 5.5
- Wan'Dale Robinson — 4.2 catches · Pregame line 3.5
- Carnell Tate — 3.8 catches · Pregame line 4.5
Passing Yards
- Lamar Jackson — 209 pass yds · Pregame line 213.5
NE @ BUF · Week 4 · Final
Saved pregame projections — not live predictions.
Snapshot: 2026-10-04T16:32:32.322939+00:00
Anytime TD
- Josh Allen — 47% · Pregame line 55%
- James Cook — 41% · Pregame line 54%
- Rhamondre Stevenson — 35% · Pregame line 36%
First TD Scorer
- Josh Allen — 14% · Pregame line 15%
- James Cook — 10% · Pregame line 17%
- Rhamondre Stevenson — 8% · Pregame line 9%
Rushing Yards
- James Cook — 74 rush yds · Pregame line 85.5
- TreVeyon Henderson — 46 rush yds · Pregame line 40.5
Receiving Yards
- Dalton Kincaid — 42 rec yds · Pregame line 47.5
- Khalil Shakir — 40 rec yds · Pregame line 38.5
- Mack Hollins — 39 rec yds · Pregame line 43.5
- DJ Moore — 37 rec yds · Pregame line 50.5
Receptions
- Khalil Shakir — 3.8 catches · Pregame line 3.5
- Mack Hollins — 3.3 catches · Pregame line 3.5
- Dalton Kincaid — 3.1 catches · Pregame line 4.5
Passing Yards
- Josh Allen — 239 pass yds · Pregame line 242.5
NYJ @ CHI · Week 4 · Final
Saved pregame projections — not live predictions.
Snapshot: 2026-10-04T16:32:32.322939+00:00
Anytime TD
- D'Andre Swift — 35% · Pregame line 49%
- Garrett Wilson — 35% · Pregame line 37%
- Luther Burden III — 33% · Pregame line 31%
First TD Scorer
- D'Andre Swift — 11% · Pregame line 16%
- Garrett Wilson — 8% · Pregame line 10%
- Luther Burden III — 7% · Pregame line 9%
Rushing Yards
- D'Andre Swift — 64 rush yds · Pregame line 63.5
- Kyle Monangai — 43 rush yds · Pregame line 39.5
Receiving Yards
- Garrett Wilson — 53 rec yds · Pregame line 75.5
- Rome Odunze — 42 rec yds · Pregame line 32.5
- Luther Burden III — 41 rec yds · Pregame line 46.5
- Kenyon Sadiq — 40 rec yds · Pregame line 41.5
Receptions
- Garrett Wilson — 4.8 catches · Pregame line 6.5
- Luther Burden III — 3.2 catches · Pregame line 4.5
- Colston Loveland — 2.9 catches · Pregame line 3.5
Passing Yards
- Geno Smith — 211 pass yds · Pregame line 227.5
JAX @ CIN · Week 4 · Final
Saved pregame projections — not live predictions.
Snapshot: 2026-10-04T16:32:32.322939+00:00
Anytime TD
- Ja'Marr Chase — 47% · Pregame line 51%
- Chase Brown — 45% · Pregame line 56%
- Tee Higgins — 37% · Pregame line 40%
First TD Scorer
- Ja'Marr Chase — 14% · Pregame line 13%
- Chase Brown — 13% · Pregame line 14%
- Tee Higgins — 8% · Pregame line 10%
Rushing Yards
- Chase Brown — 61 rush yds · Pregame line 60.5
- Bhayshul Tuten — 38 rush yds · Pregame line 55.5
Receiving Yards
- Ja'Marr Chase — 70 rec yds · Pregame line 83.5
- Tee Higgins — 60 rec yds · Pregame line 62.5
- Parker Washington — 46 rec yds · Pregame line 75.5
- Jakobi Meyers — 43 rec yds · Pregame line 41.5
Receptions
- Ja'Marr Chase — 6.6 catches · Pregame line 7.5
- Tee Higgins — 4.3 catches · Pregame line 4.5
- Jakobi Meyers — 3.7 catches · Pregame line 3.5
Passing Yards
- Joe Burrow — 261 pass yds · Pregame line 269.5
DAL @ HOU · Week 4 · Final
Saved pregame projections — not live predictions.
Snapshot: 2026-10-04T16:32:32.322939+00:00
Anytime TD
- David Montgomery — 40% · Pregame line 54%
- Javonte Williams — 37% · Pregame line 53%
- Nico Collins — 37% · Pregame line 38%
First TD Scorer
- David Montgomery — 11% · Pregame line 16%
- Javonte Williams — 9% · Pregame line 14%
- Nico Collins — 8% · Pregame line 10%
Rushing Yards
- Javonte Williams — 53 rush yds · Pregame line 59.5
- David Montgomery — 45 rush yds · Pregame line 44.5
Receiving Yards
- CeeDee Lamb — 63 rec yds · Pregame line 76.5
- George Pickens — 55 rec yds · Pregame line 68.5
- Nico Collins — 54 rec yds · Pregame line 72.5
- Dalton Schultz — 41 rec yds · Pregame line 40.5
Receptions
- CeeDee Lamb — 5.8 catches · Pregame line 5.5
- George Pickens — 4.5 catches · Pregame line 4.5
- Nico Collins — 4.2 catches · Pregame line 5.5
Passing Yards
- C.J. Stroud — 244 pass yds · Pregame line 246
ARI @ NYG · Week 4 · Final
Saved pregame projections — not live predictions.
Snapshot: 2026-10-04T16:32:32.322939+00:00
Anytime TD
- Jeremiyah Love — 46% · Pregame line 55%
- Trey McBride — 44% · Pregame line 39%
- Cam Skattebo — 37% · Pregame line 53%
First TD Scorer
- Jeremiyah Love — 11% · Pregame line 18%
- Trey McBride — 10% · Pregame line 11%
- Cam Skattebo — 9% · Pregame line 15%
Rushing Yards
- Jeremiyah Love — 55 rush yds · Pregame line 67
- Cam Skattebo — 48 rush yds · Pregame line 62.5
Receiving Yards
- Trey McBride — 66 rec yds · Pregame line 63.5
- Malik Nabers — 53 rec yds · Pregame line 54.5
- Michael Wilson — 50 rec yds · Pregame line 56.5
- Marvin Harrison Jr. — 35 rec yds · Pregame line 33.5
Receptions
- Trey McBride — 6.8 catches · Pregame line 6.5
- Malik Nabers — 5.0 catches · Pregame line 4.5
- Michael Wilson — 3.6 catches · Pregame line 5
Passing Yards
- Jacoby Brissett — 223 pass yds · Pregame line 230.5
LA @ PHI · Week 4 · Final
Saved pregame projections — not live predictions.
Snapshot: 2026-10-04T16:32:32.322939+00:00
Anytime TD
- Kyren Williams — 47% · Pregame line 52%
- Puka Nacua — 47% · Pregame line 40%
- Davante Adams — 42% · Pregame line 42%
First TD Scorer
- Kyren Williams — 14% · Pregame line 16%
- Puka Nacua — 14% · Pregame line 12%
- Davante Adams — 11% · Pregame line 13%
Rushing Yards
- Saquon Barkley — 72 rush yds · Pregame line 68.5
- Kyren Williams — 67 rush yds · Pregame line 59.5
Receiving Yards
- Puka Nacua — 85 rec yds · Pregame line 74.5
- Davante Adams — 67 rec yds · Pregame line 65.5
- Zach Ertz — 41 rec yds · Pregame line 21.5
- Dontayvion Wicks — 31 rec yds · Pregame line 56.5
Receptions
- Puka Nacua — 6.6 catches · Pregame line 6.5
- Davante Adams — 5.2 catches · Pregame line 4.5
- Zach Ertz — 3.3 catches · Pregame line 2.5
Passing Yards
- Matthew Stafford — 254 pass yds · Pregame line 250.5
GB @ TB · Week 4 · Final
Saved pregame projections — not live predictions.
Snapshot: 2026-10-04T16:32:32.322939+00:00
Anytime TD
- Christian Watson — 38% · Pregame line 37%
- Tucker Kraft — 33% · Pregame line 27%
- Bucky Irving — 33% · Pregame line 35%
First TD Scorer
- Christian Watson — 14% · Pregame line 12%
- Bucky Irving — 8% · Pregame line 12%
- Tucker Kraft — 7% · Pregame line 8%
Rushing Yards
- Bucky Irving — 61 rush yds · Pregame line 55.5
- MarShawn Lloyd — 26 rush yds · Pregame line 23.5
Receiving Yards
- Christian Watson — 61 rec yds · Pregame line 67.5
- Emeka Egbuka — 46 rec yds · Pregame line 37.5
- Matthew Golden — 45 rec yds · Pregame line 56.5
- Tucker Kraft — 44 rec yds · Pregame line 40.5
Receptions
- Christian Watson — 3.8 catches · Pregame line 4.5
- Chris Godwin Jr. — 3.3 catches · Pregame line 2.5
- Cade Otton — 3.3 catches · Pregame line 2.5
Passing Yards
- Jordan Love — 247 pass yds · Pregame line 239.5
IND @ WAS · Week 4 · Final
Saved pregame projections — not live predictions.
Snapshot: 2026-10-04T13:04:10.181151+00:00
Anytime TD
- Jonathan Taylor — 47% · Pregame line 70%
- Tyler Warren — 36% · Pregame line 37%
- Stefon Diggs — 35% · Pregame line 29%
First TD Scorer
- Jonathan Taylor — 14% · Pregame line 25%
- Tyler Warren — 8% · Pregame line 10%
- Stefon Diggs — 7% · Pregame line 7%
Rushing Yards
- Jonathan Taylor — 83 rush yds · Pregame line 90.5
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt — 48 rush yds · Pregame line 60.5
Receiving Yards
- Josh Downs — 50 rec yds · Pregame line 71.5
- Stefon Diggs — 46 rec yds · Pregame line 56.5
- Tyler Warren — 46 rec yds · Pregame line 54.5
- Chig Okonkwo — 30 rec yds · Pregame line 28.5
Receptions
- Tyler Warren — 4.2 catches · Pregame line 5.5
- Stefon Diggs — 3.9 catches · Pregame line 5.5
- Josh Downs — 3.7 catches · Pregame line 6.5
Passing Yards
- Daniel Jones — 221 pass yds · Pregame line 219.5
PIT @ CLE · Week 4 · Final
No pregame snapshot was retained for this game.